From Strategic Security Risks to National Capability Priorities

Since 9/11, many western nations have re-framed their national security decisions in terms of strategic risk management. All have undertaken risk assessments, but valid translation into capability priorities has been abdicated largely by transferring priorities directly from risk magnitudes. Treatment priorities should be determined from risk reduction benefits in relation to costs, but a method for assessing risk reduction effects has been broadly elusive. This article shows, in a pragmatic way, how treatment options are generated, and how the capabilities that contribute most to risk reduction can be identified. These should be priority targets for the investment of limited resources.